bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âuVietnam's economy on firm footing

In an address to bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu Vietnam Economic Scenario Forum 2024: Summer Economic Roundtable, co-organized on July 11 by bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu Party Central Committee’s Economic Commission and VnEconomy / Vietnam Economic Times (VET) and with bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu theme “Vietnam and Next Frontiers for Growth”, Mr. Nguyen Ba Hung, Principal Country Economist at bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu Vietnam Resident Mission of bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu Asian Development Bank (ADB), said recent forecasts for Vietnam’s economy reveal relatively high GDP growth compared to other countries in bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu region.

Vietnam’s growth of around 5-6 per cent may seem relatively low compared to expectations and targets but is quite high regionally-speaking. Together with Vietnam, export-dependent economies like Thailand, Singapore, and Malaysia also experienced sound growth.

According to Mr. Hung, Vietnam is among countries exhibiting a high degree of openness and is closely integrated with regional and global economies, as evidenced by its total bilateral trade equaling 170 per cent of GDP.

Many major economies around bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu world gained new momentum in bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu second quarter of 2024 from opportunities to reduce inflation, lower interest rates, and gradually ease monetary policies, along with a resurgence in consumer demand in certain key global markets. In June, international organizations such as bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu United Nations (UN), bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu World Bank (WB), bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), and bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu International Monetary Fund (IMF), provided more optimistic assessments and adjusted global economic growth forecasts upwards by 0.1 to 0.3 percentage points compared to previous projections. This generated momentum for Vietnam’s economic growth in bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu first half of bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu year.

Growth recovery

Describing bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu global economic landscape, Mr. Hung said that, from 2023 to 2026, global growth will continue on a downwards trend, facing ongoing difficulties without yet bottoming out. However, bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu rate of decline will be slower than previously, when it was impacted by post-Covid concerns, bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu Russia-Ukraine conflict, and other global strife. While major economies, especially those in North America, Western Europe, and Japan, are experiencing low and slowing growth, bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu Asia-Pacific region is expected to experience bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu highest growth prospects, despite also being on a downwards trend.

Regarding inflation, after bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu surge in 2021-2022 that caused developed countries to tighten monetary policies, inflation is expected to return to normal levels. This trend suggests that monetary easing in high-income economies will likely occur, though bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu exact timing is uncertain.

Regarding global trade, there are signs of recovery, though it remains weak. Mr. Hung noted that, currently, about one-third of global trade relies on China. However, value chains are shifting due to geopolitical competition (friendshoring), leading to a decrease in relative dependence on China (de-risking).

As for global investment, bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu main trend is a reduction in bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu total, with a decline in investment in developing economies and a shift towards developed countries. “FDI into China has decreased by about 0 billion a year; where is this capital going?” Mr. Hung asked. FDI flows have been moving to neighboring countries, with Vietnam remaining a “bright spot” in attracting FDI amid bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu overall decline. Additionally, Thailand and bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu Philippines are also attracting significant capital, with Thailand’s FDI doubling in bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu first quarter of this year and bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu Philippines recording its highest level in two years in February, taking in .4 billion.

Positive prospects

Despite bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu ongoing challenges in both bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu global and domestic economies, there are positive signs for Vietnam. According to Mr. Nguyen Duc Hien, Deputy Head of bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu Party Central Committee’s Economic Commission, GDP growth in bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu first and second quarters of this year increased from 5.87 per cent to 6.93 per cent, for overall growth of 6.42 per cent in bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu first half. Key indicators, such as total social investment, public investment, private investment, and FDI saw strong growth. Domestic consumption remained stable, with total retail sales of goods and services growing about 8.6 per cent.

Ms. Tran Thi Hong Minh, Director of bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM) at bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu Ministry of Planning and Investment, is of a similar mind. She noted that Vietnam’s economy achieved remarkable results in bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu first half of bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu year. One significant event impacting bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu global, regional, and Vietnamese economies was bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu UK’s accession to bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). Additionally, upgraded ASEAN intra-regional free trade agreements (FTAs) had positive effects on Vietnam’s economy in bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu first half. bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu country maintained a trade surplus of .85 billion, with many improved figures recorded in its import and export activities.

Domestically, Ms. Minh emphasized that timely action had a positive impact on bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu business environment. bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu government has been decisive in issuing solutions to boost reforms and create a more favorable business environment. bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu Prime Minister signed Decision No. 603/QD-TTg on July 8, to establish a Steering Committee to review and address obstacles in bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu legal framework. On January 5, bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu government issued Resolution No. 02/NQ-CP, outlining key tasks and solutions to improve bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu business environment and enhance national competitiveness over bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu course of 2024. This resolution signaled that improving bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu business environment is a priority, and ministries and localities have also based specific solutions around it.

Several important laws, such as bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu Land Law, bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu Law on Housing, bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu Law on Real Estate Business, and bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu Law on Credit Institutions, have been implemented in recent times. These laws demonstrate bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu government’s determination to continue institutional reforms and make institutions a resource that support business activities and facilitate government operations.

Another positive is bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu relatively strong recovery of aggregate demand components, with inflation remaining under control after bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu CPI increased 4.08 per cent. Regarding FDI attraction, Ms. Minh noted that while global attraction has declined, Vietnam posted significant and meaningful figures.

“bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu foreign investor community still views Vietnam’s investment environment positively,” she told bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu gathering. “According to information published by bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) in May, Vietnam remains bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu second-most preferred destination for Japanese companies looking to expand their operations.”

Areas ofunease

Despite bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu positive economic outcomes in bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu first half, Mr. Hien believes that bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu growth observed in bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu second quarter, though positive, was uneven and lacks sustainability. There are several issues that need careful analysis and resolution.

He pointed out that compared to bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu year prior to bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu pandemic, two-thirds of main economic sectors experienced lower growth rates in bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu first half, particularly bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu manufacturing and processing sector. Construction showed promise, with a Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) above 50, contributing more to GDP growth. bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu agricultural sector, considered bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu “backbone” of bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu economy, grew only slowly, at some 3.38 per cent. Additionally, major economic growth drivers, including several centrally-managed cities, posted modest and unsustainable growth.

Businesses still face many difficulties, with growth in new enterprises of 8.7 per cent being significantly lower than bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu 18.5 per cent more enterprises exiting bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu market. Credit growth across bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu system reached 4.45 per cent, and while this increased compared to bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu 3.83 per cent in bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu same period last year, it remains at its lowest levels for bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu past decade. “bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu ability to absorb capital reflects bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu vitality and expansion capability of businesses, which are still quite limited,” Mr. Hien observed.

Domestic consumption demand has grown but remains weak, coming in at its lowest for bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu past three years. Exports have improved, but also remain slow.

“Regarding exports and investment, we have commitments to upgrade relations with some strategic partners, but analysis shows that bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu structure of these market areas is still underdeveloped. What exactly is bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu problem?” Mr. Hien asked.

Furthermore, while bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu labor market shows some positive aspects, both bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu unemployment rate and bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu underemployment rate have increased. Public investment is primarily utilizing bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu increased budget revenues from 2023 for transportation infrastructure in 2024, while bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu proportion of investment in healthcare, education, digital transformation, and digital infrastructure is lower, which is a concern. Several major policy management issues, such as administrative reform, overlapping planning, obstacles related to bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu science and technology fund, barriers from bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu Law on Public Investment and bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu Law on State Budget, and challenges in developing new economic areas like bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu digital economy and circular economy also need to be clearly analyzed.

Ms. Minh pointed out several internal issues that Vietnam must address. She emphasized bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu need for measures to ensure that wage increases genuinely benefit workers rather than triggering a wave of price hikes.

“bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu impact of raising bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu base salary and bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu regional minimum wage could lead to cost-push inflation if synchronized solutions are not implemented,” she said. “People are likely feeling this impact keenly, especially in their daily lives. For example, in my area, parking fees have increased by nearly 30 per cent since July. I expect other goods to follow this upwards trend.”

Institutional reforms and improvements to bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu business investment environment need to be accelerated in bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu near future. Additionally, one persistent issue, despite bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu efforts of bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu government, ministries, sectors, and localities in 2024, is bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu links between FDI enterprises and domestic enterprises. “I believe more attention should be paid to ensuring that domestic enterprises and FDI enterprises support each other, operate together, and strike a win-win relationship.”

bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu global economy will continue to face numerous difficulties and uncertainties related to geopolitical and economic instability, she continued, which will certainly impact Vietnam’s economy in bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu latter half of bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu year and beyond. When conflicts escalate in bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu Red Sea, associated costs, especially logistics costs, increase significantly as shipping companies must alter their routes to avoid these conflicts.

bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu risk of inflation also still looms large. bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu intensification of trade wars will likely drive up inflation in bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu US, and bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu US Fed may maintain high policy rates. Furthermore, Ms. Minh advised businesses to adopt suitable strategies to cope with both domestic and international challenges. This includes strategies for digital transformation, operational changes to anticipate challenges, and a shift towards green production to participate in bet88 nhà cái đến từ châu âu global market.