UOB: Vietnam's GDP tải bet88 drop tải bet88 5.9 per cent due tải bet88 typhoon Yagi

In its latest report, the Singapore-basedUnited Overseas Bank (UOB) stated that Vietnam’s strong growth momentum in the first half of the year is unlikely tải bet88 be sustained for the remainder of the year due tải bet88 disruptions from the typhoon Yagi, reconstruction efforts, and a high comparative base from the second half of 2023.

The typhoon's impact is expected tải bet88 be felt more clearly in the northern regions towards the end of the third quarter and the start of the fourth quarter, leading tải bet88 reduced output and damage tải bet88 manufacturing, agriculture, and service facilities.

As a result, economic growth is expected tải bet88 slow down tải bet88 5.7 per cent and 5.2 per cent in the third and fourth quarter, respectively, compared tải bet88 earlier forecasts of 6 per cent and 5.4 per cent.

The bank has therefore slightly reduced Vietnam's GDP growth forecast from 6 per cent tải bet88 5.9 per cent for 2024.

Despite these short-term disruptions, UOB's report highlighted that Vietnam’s long-term fundamentals remain solid. The annual growth rate is still projected tải bet88 be a "positive recovery" compared tải bet88 2023, however.

The Singaporean bank has also revised its projection of Vietnam’s GDP growth rate for 2025 tải bet88 6.6 per cent, 0.2 per cent higher than its previous projection tải bet88 compensate for 2024.

The typhoon caused an estimated damage of aroundVND50 trillion (.03 billion), according tải bet88 the Government Resolution No.143/NQ-CP dated September 17 on recovery effort after Typhoon Yagiacross 26 cities and provinces in northern Vietnam. These localities account for around 41 per cent of the country’s GDP and 40 per cent of its population, according tải bet88 preliminary data from the Ministry of Planning and Investment. This impact is expected tải bet88 reduce national GDP growth by around 0.15 per cent, tải bet88 an estimated 6.8-7 per cent for 2024.

Although the typhoon and currency fluctuations have affected the economy, UOB expects the State Bank of Vietnam tải bet88 maintain its refinancing rate at 4.5 per cent, while focusing on promoting credit growth and other supportive measures.

However, there are two key pressures tải bet88 monitor. First is inflation risk, with the CPI rising 4 per cent year-on-year over the first eight months, nearing the 4.5 per cent target. Second, the U.S. Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cut could pressure Vietnam’s central bank tải bet88 consider similar easing measures.

On a positive note, the Vietnamese dong (VND) has seen its largest quarterly gain since 1993, appreciating by 3.2 per cent tải bet88 VND24,630 per USD. However, UOB cautions that further gains may be more gradual as external pressures from the U.S. dollar begin tải bet88 ease and the Fed initiates a monetary easing cycle.

Moreover, foreign direct investment (FDI) data continues tải bet88 highlight the confidence of international investors in Vietnam. As of the end of October, actual FDI inflows increased by 8 per cent tải bet88 reach .2 billion. If this growth trend persists, the annual FDI inflow could exceed billion for the third consecutive year, following the .2 billion recorded in 2023.

FDI prospects remain robust, with registered FDI this year reaching .5 billion by August, up 7 per cent from .2 billion in the same period of 2023. Nearly 70 per cent of this investment is concentrated in the manufacturing sector. As of the end of October, approximately 33 per cent of the registered FDI originated from Singapore, followed by Japan at 12 per cent.